Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
When will a previously tested SARS-CoV-2 vaccine begin to be produced at a manufacturing facility whose construction was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation?
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.
On 2020-04-03, philanthropist Bill Gates announced that his foundation, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, would be funding the construction of factories ready to manufacture any seven of the most “promising” SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates and then would manufacture one to two of them, depending on forthcoming clinical trial data.
This question asks: When will a previously tested SARS-CoV-2 vaccine begin to be produced at a manufacturing facility whose construction was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation?
For our purposes, a vaccine is a product that stimulates a person’s immune system to produce immunity to a specific disease, protecting the person from that disease.
The vaccine candidate must have been previously been administered to at least 100 people as part of a SARS-CoV-2 clinical trial.
This question resolves as the date when the first article is published that presents the claim that a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine has begun to be produced at a manufacturing facility whose construction was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. This article must be authored by at least one of those involved in the funding, organizing, or researching of this effort. The credibility of this article will be determined by Metaculus. Pre-prints will be considered and need not be peer-reviewed.
If this does not resolve before 08 April 2023, it resolves as >08 April 2023.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
Embed this question
You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.