About Metaculus

Metaculus is a forecasting technology platform that optimally aggregates quantitative predictions of future events. Research shows that with the right incentives and feedback, groups of people can make remarkably accurate predictions of the probability of future events. Enabling this capacity is the aim of Metaculus.

What makes us different?

How does Metaculus generate accurate forecasts?

The human mind is an incredible engine for forecasting. But the world is complex, and many predictions are hard to make. Science has developed largely to fill this gap, making stunning predictions about systems that can be accurately modeled mathematically or numerically using theoretical constructs, but there are times when it still cannot predict the behavior of complex systems.

It is often assumed that events within such systems are simply unpredictable. But they aren’t. Of all the numerical ranges that Metaculus has forecast, 94% were more accurate than random guessing. You can see the Metaculus track record across all questions since 2015.

Team

Gaia Dempsey

Gaia Dempsey

CEO

Tom Liptay

Tom Liptay

Program & Operations Director

Daniel Hnyk

Daniel Hnyk

Director of Engineering

Christian Williams

Christian Williams

Director of Communications & Data

Sylvain Chevalier

Sylvain Chevalier

Technical Product Manager

Lawrence Phillips

Lawrence Phillips

Sr. Machine Learning Engineer, NLP

Matej Vrzala

Matej Vrzala

Software Engineer

Martin Račák

Martin Račák

Software Engineer

Alyssa Stevens

Alyssa Stevens

Forecasting Analyst

Juan Cambeiro

Juan Cambeiro

Biosciences Analyst

Rudolf Ordoyne

Rudolf Ordoyne

Forecasting Analyst

Nikos Bosse

Nikos Bosse

Research Coordinator

Advisors

Tamay Besiroglu

Tamay Besiroglu

Welton Chang

Welton Chang

Burak Nehbit

Burak Nehbit

Steven Schkolne

Steven Schkolne

Board

Anthony Aguirre

Anthony Aguirre

Founder & Chairman of the Board (Prof. of Physics, UCSC; PhD 2000, Harvard)

Greg Laughlin

Greg Laughlin

Founder & R&D Fellow (Prof. of Astronomy, Yale; PhD 1994, UCSC)
Max Wainwright

Carroll “Max” Wainwright

Founder & AI Advisor (AI Researcher & Data Scientist, PhD 2013, UCSC)
David Levine

David Levine

Founder
Gaia Dempsey

Gaia Dempsey

CEO