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COVID-19 vaccine administered to 10K people in 2020?

Cross-posted on Metaculus.

Covid-19, also known as Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak. The virus is at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV, the virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome.

Various research groups have started work on a vaccine to fight the virus, with some hoping to start human tests as early as May 2020.

Question: Will a vaccine targeted at the Covid-19 be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?


  • Resolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. This excludes media and institutions affiliated or otherwise under the control of the Chinese government.

  • A single vaccine has to be administered to 10000 people.

  • A vaccine can trigger:

    • Positive resolution if there is consensus that it protects against Covid-19.
    • Ambiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.
  • Negative resolution occurs only when there is no vaccine triggering either positive or ambiguous resolution.

  • The aforementioned "consensus" shall be reached among non-china-affiliated medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.

  • This resolves whenever the relevant media reports are published, or on 2021-01-01 (whichever comes first).

  • If this resolves positively, it does not close retroactively (sorry for the lost points).

  • A single vaccine has to be administered to 10000 people.


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