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How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?

Cross-posted on Metaculus.

The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.

This question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease.

This question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).

Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports global confirmed cases for that dates.

In case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.

Other questions in the series.

How many new cases of COVID-19 in:

Similar question: How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?

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