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Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?

Cross-posted on Metaculus.

Every 4 years, the United States elects a new president. These elections are traditionally held on the first Tuesday after November 1st. Typically, somewhere roughly between 50% and 60% of the voting population turns out to cast a ballot.

An election is scheduled to be held on the 3rd of November. However, the COVID-19 outbreak has reached the United States. This could potentially cause havoc, making many people sick or fearful to come to public polling places, and potentially incapacitating the personnel necessary to run elections. As such, we ask:

Will at least 33% of the US voting-age population cast a ballot for President in an election held on the 3rd of November 2020?

Notes:

  • Technically the election is for members of the Electoral College, not the President.
  • The "3rd of November 2020" refers to the period of time when it is the 3rd of November 2020 in any state of the United States.
  • This total includes people who voted by mail or people who voted early in person, as long as the majority of in-person voting is held on the 3rd of November.

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