Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will China have more excess deaths than the USA in 2020?
The USA and China have taken very different approaches to the Coronavirus Pandemic.
However, it seems unlikely that both countries would be able to hide a large number of excess deaths (although they might be attributed to something other than Coronavirus).
So, this question asks: Will China have more excess deaths (vs a base year of 2018) than the USA in 2020?
The base year is 2018, because I couldn't find stats for 2019.
Each country will be assigned a number of excess deaths equal to: (Number of deaths in 2020 (total)) - (number of deaths in 2018).
If this excess is less than 100k for both countries, the question will resolve ambiguously.
If the difference between the two countries' excesses is within 10k, the question resolves ambiguously.
If the excess for China is >100k and exceeds the excess for the USA by at least 10k, the question resolves positively.
If the excess for the USA is >100k and exceeds the excess for China by at least 10k, the question resolves negatively.
This question will resolve when reliable statistics from a 3rd party (e.g. WHO) are released. If on Dec 31,2021, no third party releases such statistics, question will resolve based on best statistics available or ambiguously.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.