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Will China have more excess deaths than the USA in 2020?

The USA and China have taken very different approaches to the Coronavirus Pandemic.

China has taken an all-in approach, quarantining whole cities. While in the USA, the president appears to be downplaying the severity of the crisis.

There are also serious questions about the reliability of statistics about Coronavirus in both countries.

However, it seems unlikely that both countries would be able to hide a large number of excess deaths (although they might be attributed to something other than Coronavirus).


So, this question asks: Will China have more excess deaths (vs a base year of 2018) than the USA in 2020?


Resolution details:

  • The base year is 2018, because I couldn't find stats for 2019.

  • Base number of deaths: China had 10.25 million, the USA had 2.81 million

  • Each country will be assigned a number of excess deaths equal to: (Number of deaths in 2020 (total)) - (number of deaths in 2018).

  • If this excess is less than 100k for both countries, the question will resolve ambiguously.

  • If the difference between the two countries' excesses is within 10k, the question resolves ambiguously.

  • If the excess for China is >100k and exceeds the excess for the USA by at least 10k, the question resolves positively.

  • If the excess for the USA is >100k and exceeds the excess for China by at least 10k, the question resolves negatively.

  • This question will resolve when reliable statistics from a 3rd party (e.g. WHO) are released. If on Dec 31,2021, no third party releases such statistics, question will resolve based on best statistics available or ambiguously.

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