formulating precise futures computing predictive wisdom mapping predictive futures formulating precise contingencies exploring calibrated futures mapping the future delivering predictive futures aggregating accurate wisdom exploring contingent forecasts modeling predictive futures computing precise wisdom predicting precise estimations forecasting probable insights formulating predictive predictions


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

What is the current US contagious-to-mortality ratio?

A key piece of information people may want to assess the local danger of COVID-19 is how many carriers are likely in their community, able to infect others. This is a bit hard to know, because not all contagious people show significant symptoms, not all people with symptoms get tested and (thankfully) not all who get tested die; and when they do, it is some time later. However, it can be estimated from available numbers, which is what this question is calling for.

However, it's a good bet that if someone currently dies of COVID-19 type symptoms, they will get tested and recorded.

We ask:

What is the current ratio of (infectious carriers of COVID-19 in the US) to (fatalities attributed to COVID-19 in the US)?

It is likely that other countries will have similar numbers. Question will resolve August 1 with a credible estimate of this number for the period over which the question is open, as judged by Metaculus admins, and ambiguous in case of more than 25% uncertainty in the number.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.