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Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?

Cross-posted on Metaculus.

This question will resolve positive if at least 9 of the 12 states with the most COVID-19 deaths per capita in 2020 (as reported by the CDC) are among the states that voted for Trump in the 2016 presidential election.

For purposes of this question, 30 states out of 50 are considered to have voted for Trump in the 2016 election, which is 60% or 7.2 out of 12. They are:

Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana,Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi, Alabama (We won’t count the second congressional districft of Maine which may not have readily accessible health statistics). (source)

This question resolves according to the best numbers published by the CDC as of 2021-03-15, as judged by Metaculus.


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