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By how much will chloroquine turn out to reduce the case fatality rate for COVID-19

Of the potential treatments (and potential preventatives) of COVID-19, the venerable anti-malarial drug chloroquine has emerged as one of the most interesting.

As discussed for example here, chloroquine is quite well tolerated even over the long term, can be produced in huge quantities, and appears to be at least somewhat effective in mitigating the severity of COVID-19.

If chloroquine were found to reduce the fatality rate and/or hospitalization rate of COVID-19 it could make a significant impact. So we'll ask:

By what factor will treatment with chloroquine turn out to reduce the case fatality rate in COVID-19

Assume for this question that a careful comparative study is published (or posted in preprint form) in which cohorts of diagnosed cases of COVID-19 are separated that are and are not, treated with chloroquine, with as many other variables as possible controlled for. Question resolves as the ratio of the case fatality rate (CFR) with chloroquine divided by the CFR without chloroquine. Specifically, the reduction factor is defined as follows:

If this happens before the close date, retroactively closes to one day prior to publication date. Resolves ambiguous if no credible study of this type is published. For the purposes of this question hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine will be treated as equivalent. Studies in which hydroxychloroquine and/or chloroquine are used in set combination with another drug will not be counted. If multiple qualifying studies appear after the close date but prior to the resolution date the average value resulting from them will be used.


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