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By June 1 2020, what fraction of the US population will have taken Chloroquine?
Of the potential treatments (and potential preventatives) of COVID-19, the venerable anti-malarial drug Chloroquine has emerged as one of the most interesting.
As discussed for example here, Chloroquine is quite well tolerated even over the long term, can be produced in huge quantities, and appears by some initial reports to be at least somewhat effective in mitigating the severity of COVID-19.
If Chloroquine were found to reduce the fatality rate and/or hospitalization rate of COVID-19 it could make a significant impact. So we'll ask:
By June 1, 2020, what fraction of the US population will have taken at least one dose of Chloroquine since March 15, 2020?
Resolves using a credible estimate of the number of US residents taking Chloroquine between March 15 and June 1, 2020. Resolves ambiguous if no such credible estimate is available by July 1.
Metaculus help: Predicting
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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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