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By how much will remdesivir turn out to reduce the case fatality rate for COVID-19?
Remdesivir is an investigational nucleotide analog with broad-spectrum antiviral activity. It is not approved anywhere globally for any use.
According to its producer, Gilead Sciences:
Remdesivir has demonstrated in vitro and in vivo activity in animal models against the viral pathogens MERS and SARS, which are also coronaviruses and are structurally similar to COVID-19. The limited preclinical data on remdesivir in MERS and SARS indicate that remdesivir may have potential activity against COVID-19.
If remdesivir were found to reduce the fatality rate and/or hospitalization rate of COVID-19 it could make a significant impact. So we'll ask:
By what factor will treatment with remdesivir turn out to reduce the case fatality rate in COVID-19
Assume for this question that a careful comparative study is published (or posted in preprint form) in which cohorts of diagnosed cases of COVID-19 are separated that are and are not, treated with remdesivir, with as many other variables as possible controlled for.
For the purpose of this question, only studies with at least 100 subjects in both the control and treatment group(s) count as qualifying studies.
This question resolves as the ratio of the case fatality rate (CFR) with remdesivir divided by the CFR without remdesivir. Specifically, the reduction factor is defined as follows:
If this happens before the close date, retroactively closes to one day prior to publication date. Resolves ambiguous if no credible study of this type is published, as judged by Metaculus admin and/or community moderators. If multiple qualifying studies appear after the close date but prior to the resolution date the average value resulting from them will be used.
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When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.