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How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. As of March 30, 2020 over 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease in the US.

This question asks: How many deaths directly attributed to COVID-19 will be reported to have occurred after 2020 and before 2022 in the United States?

Resolution will be the total number of human deaths directly attributed to COVID-19 to have occurred in the US after 2020 and before January 1, 2022 as reported by (in decreasing order of priority):

  • The World Health Organisation.
  • The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
  • The United Nations.
  • Credible press reports. If there are several press reports judged credible by a Metaculus admin, resolution should be the median of the published estimates.

This question resolves according to the best numbers published as of 2022-03-30, as judged by Metaculus. If these numbers are later revised, resolution will remain at the originally reported value.

For the purpose of this question direct attribution is taken to mean that the fatality was primarily the result of the patient's symptoms developed as a result of COVID-19. Such COVID-19 symptoms include pneumonia, acute respiratory distress, hearth failure, amongst others. Importantly, direct attribution excludes the increase in deaths due to the lack of availability of hospital capacity to non-COVID-19 patients.

A related question on US deaths in 2020 is here.


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