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Will favipiravir or tocilizumab be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?
Favipiravir is an antiviral drug being developed by Toyama Chemical (Fujifilm group) of Japan with activity against many RNA viruses. In a small trial with a sample size of 80 subjects Favipiravir had a more potent antiviral action on SARS-CoV-2 than lopinavir/ritonavir. In March 2020, Chinese officials suggested that Favipiravir seemed to be effective in treating COVID-19.
Tocilizumab is an immunosuppressive drug. On 11 March 2020 Italian physician Paolo Ascierto reported that tocilizumab appeared to be effective in three severe cases of COVID-19 in Italy (see Wikipedia).
Will favipiravir or tocilizumab be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?
This question resolves positively if before the end of 2020, medical publications or credible media sources indicate that favipiravir or tocilizumab has be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan.
For the purpose of this question, the process under which favipiravir or tocilizumab is made available to patients does not matter. It may be administered under clinical trials, special access programs (such as Expanded Access or Compassionate Use programs), approved for widespread use or even self-administered.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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