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Will any US state or any of the 20 largest US cities be under lockdown to contain an infectious disease in 2021 for at least 1 week?
As of 2020-04-01, 33 US states and several large cities in other states have issued orders instructing residents to stay home. A series of questions on Metaculus have focused on when such restrictions will be lifted. As China begins to lift its restrictions, there are concerns about a second wave of infections. There are similar concerns for US states/cities for when they lift their own restrictions. This question targets whether or not US lockdown/shelter-in-place/stay-at-home orders will remain in place or be reinstated in 2021. Specifically,
Will any US state or any of the 20 largest US cities be under lockdown due to some infectious disease in 2021?
This question resolves positively if any state or any one of the 20 largest cities remains under or reinstitutes a lockdown, shelter-in-place, or stay-at-home order related to the spread of COVID-19 or some other infectious disease in 2021. Any measures that restrict movement between states/cities rather than within them would not count.
For purposes of this question, the twenty largest cities are those listed in this Wikipedia article according to the 2018 census estimate.
This question may resolve to yes on the basis of this New York Times source. If that is not updated during the time frame in question, then this Kaiser source will be consulted, if it is available, in conjunction with other sources found to be credible by Metaculus moderators (WaPO, WSJ, CNBC, Business Insider, etc) and will resolve on the basis of such sources using the terms "lockdown," "shelter-in-place," or "stay-at-home" to refer to any possible orders by state/local authorities.
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