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When will Amazon offer an in-home diagnostic test for COVID-19?

One problem with COVID-19 testing is that it presently runs directly counter to stay-at-home orders. In order to get tested, one must leave one's home. A logical solution to this conundrum is to create at-home tests. This is already common practice for many conditions other than COVID-19. Amazon offers a wide array of FDA-approved medical diagnostic tests for use at home, notably including HIV.

Furthermore, the FDA has already approved an in-home diagnostic test for COVID-19. That said, the FDA's authorization only extends to swab kits to be prescribed by a doctor, administered at home, and sent back for analysis by LabCorp. A test which an individual consumer can order without the intervention of a doctor or laboratory remains over the horizon, but for how long?

When will Amazon offer an in-home diagnostic test for COVID-19?

This question resolves as the date at which an FDA-approved in-home diagnostic test for SARS-CoV-2 infection can first be purchased by a US consumer from Amazon.com. Question resolves as ambiguous if such a test is discovered on Amazon.com but an initial listing date cannot be determined (or press announcing the event cannot be found).

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Metaculus help: Predicting

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Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

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