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What percentage of individuals that have previously been infected with Sars-CoV-2 and recovered no longer than 12 months ago develop COVID-19 when re-exposed to Sars-CoV-2?

Immunization is the process by which an individual's immune system becomes fortified against an agent, such as a virus.

One type of immunisation is adaptive immunization. This is an immunity that occurs after exposure to an antigen either from a pathogen or a vaccination. Adaptive immunity also involves a memory to provide the host with long-term protection from reinfection with the same type of pathogen; on re-exposure, this memory will facilitate an efficient and quick response.

What percentage of individuals that have previously been infected with Sars-CoV-2 and recovered no longer than 12 months ago develop COVID-19 when re-exposed to Sars-CoV-2?

  • This resolves as the median of the relevant percentage found in credible scientific literature published before the end of 2022 found by Metaculus admin in collaboration with the community

    • In case the relevant time difference is in scientific literature isn't exactly 12 months, then an attempt shall be made by the admin and/or author to interpolate a sensible percentage from existing work
    • Individuals considered in the studies should belong to demographics that are not completely unrepresentative of the population of the U.S., as judged by an admin and/or author
  • developing COVID-19 here means developing severe clinical features, such as viral pneumonia, but excluding minor features (such as cough, fever or tiredness)


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