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When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10,000 people?
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.
As of 20 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting that it is tracking the development of forty-four SARS-CoV-2 candidate vaccines. Two of these candidates have entered phase one and the other forty-two remain in the pre-clinical stage. There is an urgent need to determine when the first of these candidates will have been found to have a high degree of efficacy and will have been administered to a significant number of people.
The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:
Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions
This question asks: When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10,000 people?
This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 10,000 people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants.
If this does not resolve before 08 April 2023, it resolves as >08 April 2023.
Edit on 6 May 2020: removed "outside a clinical trial" from the resolution language.
Previous resolution language below
This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 10,000 people outside a clinical trial have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >95% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants.
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