computing probable estimations formulating predictive estimations modeling quantitative futures formulating precise understanding crowdsourcing intelligent forecasts mapping the future formulating precise contingencies exploring intelligent understanding assembling accurate contingencies computing calibrated forecasts generating predictive insights predicting contingent wisdom formulating quantitative predictions modeling precise contingencies

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union?

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.

As of 20 March 2020, the WHO (World Health Organization) is reporting that it is tracking the development of forty-four SARS-CoV-2 candidate vaccines.

In the United States, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) must approve a vaccine before it can be used by the public. This approval process involves a "rigorous review of laboratory and clinical data to ensure the safety, efficacy, purity and potency" of the vaccine candidate. Typically, this process involves: successful pre-clinical testing, phase one clinical trials that demonstrate safety in humans, phase two trials that provide information on side-effects and dosage response, and phase three trials that show the efficacy of the vaccine candidate in the field. If these steps are undertaken successfully, the FDA approves the vaccine and grants a license for its use.

In the European Union, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) must recommend a vaccine for marketing authorization by the European Commission and the European Commission must then grant that authorization before the vaccine can be used by the public. The approval process is very similar to that used by the FDA, except that the EMA can only recommend authorization and cannot itself grant it.

This question asks: When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union?

Resolution will be determined via the first relevant press release made by the FDA, EMA, or European Commission regarding the approval of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate. In the United States, approval means that the vaccine candidate has been licensed. In the European Union, approval means that the EMA has recommended the vaccine candidate for approval and the European Commission has granted that approval via marketing authorization. Approval under any other emergency procedures, such as expanded access, would not count.

If this does not resolve before 08 April 2023, it resolves as >08 April 2023.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.