aggregating accurate futures aggregating precise understanding aggregating predictive wisdom delivering predictive understanding assembling calibrated contingencies mapping the future calculating predictive insights formulating predictive insights predicting quantitative contingencies computing accurate insights predicting calibrated predictions predicting critical forecasts predicting calibrated contingencies generating quantitative understanding


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate whose development is funded by CEPI be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.

The Oslo-based nonprofit the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) has taken a leading role in financing, accelerating, and coordinating SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development. As of 2020-04-06 CEPI has helped fund the development of six vaccine candidates: a RNA candidate by Moderna/NIAID, a DNA candidate by Inovio Pharmaceuticals, a protein subunit candidate by University of Queensland/GSK, a RNA candidate by Curevac, a protein subunit candidate by Novavax, and a non-replicating viral vector candidate by University of Oxford.

This question asks: Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate whose development is funded by CEPI be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?

Resolution will be determined via the first relevant press release made by the FDA, EMA, or European Commission regarding the approval of one of the six SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates that has been funded by CEPI as of 2020-04-06. In the United States, approval means that the vaccine candidate has been licensed. In the European Union, approval means that the EMA has recommended the vaccine candidate for approval and the European Commission has granted that approval via marketing authorization. Approval under any other emergency procedures, such as expanded access, would not count.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.