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What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?
Cross-posted on Metaculus.
Assume that either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:
The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by this Metaculus Question's resolution--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this criterion has been met).
Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis) is estimated to be -10% or less.
This question resolves ambiguously if no such depression occurs.
Define the relative severity of this depression as the number of months the depression lasts times the real GDP decline in percentage points (peak to trough, on an annual basis), divided by 1131.
We divide by 1131 because the Great Depression lasted 43 months, and the real GDP decline was 26.3%, and .
What will be this depression's relative severity ?
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