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Will Australia experience a resurgence of COVID-19 during their 2020 flu season?

Australia has been relatively successful in containing COVID-19 cases. As of 2020-04-12 there were under 14,000 confirmed cases and 350 deaths according to the Johns Hopkins dashboard. The number of new daily cases peaked at 1,321 on 2020-03-26. COVID-19 first emerged outside of Australia's flu season, which typically spans from June to September. In other western nations the pandemic developed toward the end of their traditional flu seasons. The 2020 flu season in Australia will be the first time COVID-19 is observed in a western nation as an established disease throughout an entire flu season. There are important issues to be resolved about how seasonal COVID-19 is and how this disease interacts with existing flu strains.

Will Australia experience a resurgence of COVID-19 during their 2020 flu season?

For the purpose of this question, a resurgence will be defined as a period of at least 7 consecutive days where more than 500 new cases are reported per day between 2020-05-01 and 2020-09-30.

This question will resolve according to data available on the JHU Dashboard or GitHub repository. If the dashboard or repository is no longer available, resolution can be from a credible source. If no such source is available the question will resolve ambiguously.


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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.