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The Salk Tournament for coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Vaccine R&D

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Metaculus is thrilled to organise the Salk Tournament, a forecasting tournament for coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine R&D predictions.

As suggested in a recent study, it might be best for social distancing measures should remain in place until effective vaccines become widely available. This makes it all the more pressing to know when these vaccines will be ready.

Our aim with this tournament is to generate the most accurate and reliable publicly available predictions on the research, development and distribution of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.

In addition to the reputation benefits you will accrue for out-predicting the Metaculus crowd, we will award prizes to each of the top four predictors:

  • $800 for first prize
  • $600 for second prize
  • $300 for third prize
  • $300 for fourth prize

These are to be awarded to the users with the highest number of points on the tournament's end date. The prizes are as follows:

All the questions that currently form part of the tournament may be found here.

The tournament's end date is the date when at least 80% of the questions that form part of it have been resolved (note: the relevant threshold may be revised).

The rankings will be displayed here.

Terms and conditions

  • Sponsors reserve the right to modify the terms of the contest, such as the contest end-date.
  • Sponsors reserve the right to cancel or modify this Contest in the event that an insufficient number of entries are received.
  • This Contest shall be construed in accordance with U.S. law. All Federal, state and local laws and regulations apply. Winners are required to pay all applicable taxes on the prize and Metaculus assumes no liability for such taxes.
  • Void where prohibited by law. Metaculus reserves the right to refuse to award any Prize if doing so violates any applicable laws.
  • All decisions of the judges are final and the selection of Winners is at the sole and absolute discretion of Metaculus.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

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