Metaculus

Predicting Pandemics
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    Pandemic Metaculus Standards

    Created by JBoyles on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}} • Edited on {{qctrl.question.edited_time | dateStr}}

    QUESTION TEMPLATE:

    TITLE: one sentence, generally in the form of a question

    DESCRIPTION:

    • CONTEXT: one paragraph with links (factual, neutral, unbiased)

    • QUESTION: same question as the title, in bold

    • RESOLUTION CRITERIA: one sentence each, for unambiguous and ambiguous

    • SOURCES: specify Primary and Secondary sources for resolution, with links

    • FINE PRINT (optional): additional details relevant to predicting or resolving this question

    • CHANGE LOG (optional): Date, Username, Summary

    CATEGORY:

    • FIRST PRIORITY to releasing questions for contests/series/tournaments

    • SECOND PRIORITY to releasing questions in more sparse categories

    • THIRD PRIORITY to other well formed and relevant questions

    CLOSE DATE

    • Before we expect to determine the outcome, generally within 25% of resolve date

    • See the FAQ thread for details on retroactive closing

    RESOLVE DATE

    • After we expect to determine the outcome

    • Retroactive resolution if “reality input” occurs and determination known earlier than expected

    QUESTION TYPE

    • BINARY (clearly worded affirmative OR negative questions ok)

    • CONTINUOUS: NUMERIC RANGE and DATE RANGE (possible range, not probable range; log-scale ok)

    • DISCUSSION (users should contribute to discussions here)

    EXAMPLE:

    WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic on 2020-03-11. Link. COVID-19 is bad for the economy. Link to stats on recession/depression etc. Lots of people are unemployed. Link to latest unemployment numbers.

    How many people will file for unemployment in the US before 2021-03-11?

    Since we are opening the question on 2020-04-11, and 17 million Americans have already filed for unemployment (link). This question resolves unambiguously with the last number produced by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics number before 2021-03-10 23:59. If that data source becomes unavailable by the resolution date, then a published article by the New York Times will suffice. Data must be accurate, complete, relevant, and published by reputable sources to resolve this question. If these resolution criteria are not met unambiguously, the question resolves ambiguously.

    2020-05-01, JBoyles edited the numerical range to include a log-score

    STANDARD FORMATS:

    • Correct spelling and grammar, especially proper names (i.e. COVID-19)

    • Dates should be formatted with international notation: YYYY-MM-DD

    • Must DEFINE ALL THE TERMS

    • Be specific about mathematical implications (inclusive or exclusive) of words: by, before, after, until, etc.

    • Generalities will not be tolerated: limit the use of words like normal, expected, regular, proven, etc without explanation

    OTHER RESOURCES: