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How will Sweden and Finland's relative HDI change after COVID-19 by 2025?

Sweden and Finland have adopted radically different strategies towards dealing with the spread of the Novel Coranavirus/SARS-CoV-2).

In Sweden, social distancing is voluntary. Primary schools in Sweden have been kept open as have many stores and businesses. Finland has followed a more conventional lockdown strategy.

The Human Development Index of these two countries are both very high. Sweden has an HDI of .937 and Finland of .925-for a gap of 0.012 amd a ratio 1.012972973

This question asks

How will Sweden and Finland's relative HDI change after COVID-19 by 2025?

This question will resolve to the ratio of the HDI of Sweden to that of Finland. The HDI estimate will be obtained from the annual report of the United Nations Development Program released in 2025. This New York Times article shows how US cities varied according to their lockdown lengths in terms of economic performance after the 1918 Flu Pandemic.

Some advocates of a faster reopening of the US economy have pointed to Sweden as an example they would like to emulate. Part of the intent of this question is to see what the ramifications of following Sweden's example might be.

The issue of restart speed is becoming an important and partisan issue in the United States. According to this CBS Poll from 2020-04-22 over 70% of Americans favor continuation of the lockdowns. However most Republicans favor as rapid a restart as possible even if it exposes more people to Coronavirus.

This question has some companion questions. Together they look at the relative effectiveness of these two approaches by one important metric and some political, social and economic consequences of these public health policies.

What will be the ratio of COVID-19 deaths per capita between Sweden and Finland be for 2021?

How will Sweden and Finland's relative Fragile State Index change after COVID-19 by 2025?


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