Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
What will the maximum number of in-hospital lab-confirmed COVID-19 patients in El Paso County, in the 31-day period during which the "peak" occurs?
El Paso County, is a county in the far western part of the state Texas. The 2018 population estimate for the city from the U.S. Census was 682,669. As of April 13, 2020, the County of El Paso has 292 confirmed Covid-19 cases, according to the Texas Dept of State Health Services.
As of the 14th of April, 2020, there are 58 lab-Confirmed COVID-19 patients currently in hospital in El Paso County.
What will the maximum number of in-hospital lab-confirmed COVID-19 patients in El Paso County, in the 31-day period during which the first "peak" occurs?
This question resolves as the maximum number of in-hospital lab-confirmed COVID-19 patients in El Paso County in the the 15-day period before the "peak" or the 15-day period after the "peak"
Resolution is by Trauma Service Area (TSA) Hospital Data, available on this dashboard. If this is unavailable, an admin may consult a substitute datasource
Definition of "peak"
As per a previous question, the day on which the number of reported daily peaks is defined as follows:
The "peak" day is the date for which the 2-day simple moving average (SMA) of the number of reported new infections is strictly greater than the 2-day SMA over the subsequent 10 days.
The 2-day SMA is defined as the unweighted average (arithmetic mean) over the current day and the previous day.
The most recent case and fatality counts for El Paso County may be found from the The Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS).
A time-series of case and fatality counts ending on April 7th may be found in this Google Sheet.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.