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What will the maximum number of in-hospital lab-confirmed COVID-19 patients in El Paso County, in the 31-day period during which the "peak" occurs?

El Paso County, is a county in the far western part of the state Texas. The 2018 population estimate for the city from the U.S. Census was 682,669. As of April 13, 2020, the County of El Paso has 292 confirmed Covid-19 cases, according to the Texas Dept of State Health Services.

As of the 14th of April, 2020, there are 58 lab-Confirmed COVID-19 patients currently in hospital in El Paso County.

What will the maximum number of in-hospital lab-confirmed COVID-19 patients in El Paso County, in the 31-day period during which the first "peak" occurs?

Resolution

  • This question resolves as the maximum number of in-hospital lab-confirmed COVID-19 patients in El Paso County in the the 15-day period before the "peak" or the 15-day period after the "peak"

  • Resolution is by Trauma Service Area (TSA) Hospital Data, available on this dashboard. If this is unavailable, an admin may consult a substitute datasource

  • Numbers are sourced from the Texas Dept Of State Health Dashboard, or if unavailable, Reuters' tracker.

Definition of "peak"

As per a previous question, the day on which the number of reported daily peaks is defined as follows:

The "peak" day is the date for which the 2-day simple moving average (SMA) of the number of reported new infections is strictly greater than the 2-day SMA over the subsequent 10 days.

The 2-day SMA is defined as the unweighted average (arithmetic mean) over the current day and the previous day.

Data

The most recent case and fatality counts for El Paso County may be found from the The Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS).

A time-series of case and fatality counts ending on April 7th may be found in this Google Sheet.

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