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On what date will the next Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) be officially declared?

On January 30th 2020 the WHO declared the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, the first such declaration of the new decade. Before COVID-19, the previous three PHEICs were declared on 17th July 2019 (Ebola), 1st February 2016 (Zika), and 8th August 2014 (also Ebola).

On what date will the next Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) be officially declared?

This question resolves when the WHO issues an official statement declaring a PHEIC. If no such declaration has been made by the start of 2040, the question resolves ambiguously.

If an official WHO report is made available on the WHO website, the date of resolution will be the date on the appropriate web page at the time of resolution; otherwise, or if the report is undated, it will be determined by consensus date given by other credible sources, as judged by the moderators.

If this question does not resolve before 2039-12-31, then this question resolves as ">2039-12-31".

edited to add the following on 3 May 2020: If the WHO officially changes its terminology such that no future PHEICs will be declared, the question resolves ambiguously. If the WHO dissolves and an internationally recognised successor (as judged by Metaculus) continues to use PHEIC terminology, the question resolves based on declarations by that successor organisation. If the replacement body does not use PHEIC terminology, or if no clearly-recognised successor exists, the question resolves ambiguously.


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