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LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?
Cross-posted on Metaculus.
Over the last 9 influenza seasons, the CDC estimates that the seasonal death toll from influenza outbreaks has ranged from between 11,000 and 95,000. So far 35,875 deaths from COVID-19 have been reported in the US in 2020.
How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?
Resolution will be to the number of deaths reported on the COVID Tracker spreadsheet (US Daily 4PM ET tab) on January 10th at 16:00 ET for all of 2020.
Note: The 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile from the community prediction will be used for the COVID-19 Expert Survey results.
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When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.