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How many patients with Covid-19 in El Paso County will require invasive ventilation on the day when the number of hospital admissions of cases peak?

El Paso County, is a county in the far western part of the state Texas. The 2018 population estimate for the city from the U.S. Census was 682,669. As of April 13, 2020, the County of El Paso has 292 confirmed Covid-19 cases, according to the Texas Dept of State Health Services.

A previous question asked you to predict the maximum number of in-hospital lab-confirmed Covid-19 cases, in the 30-day period around the first peak of cases.

This question asks: How many patients with Covid-19 in El Paso County will require invasive ventilation on the day when the number of hospital admissions of peak?

This question resolves as the number of patients requiring invasive ventilation on the day that has the most in-hospital lab-confirmed Covid-19 cases.

Roughly (though not exactly, see thread), this question asks you to predict the product distribution of the predictions of two existing quesitons:

  1. What will the maximum number of in-hospital lab-confirmed COVID-19 patients in El Paso County, in the 30-day period during which the "peak" occurs?

  2. What portion of in-hospital patients with Covid-19 in El Paso County will require invasive ventilation?

That is, the product of your predictions to questions 1. and 2. should be essentially the same as your prediction for this question.

"Peak in hospital admissions" is defined as the resolution value of 1.

For the purpose of resolution, we shall consult numbers that are sourced from the Texas Dept Of State Health Dashboard. Alternatively, resolution is by data provided by any of the following: Trauma Service Area Hospital Data, TUHSC El Paso, the Texas Department of State Health Services, or the CDC. Other sources many also be considered if judged to be credible and accurate by an admin. In case no data may be found, this question may resolve as the product of the resolution values for questions 1. and 2.


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