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How many patients with Covid-19 in El Paso County will require invasive ventilation on the day when the number of hospital admissions of cases peak?
El Paso County, is a county in the far western part of the state Texas. The 2018 population estimate for the city from the U.S. Census was 682,669. As of April 13, 2020, the County of El Paso has 292 confirmed Covid-19 cases, according to the Texas Dept of State Health Services.
A previous question asked you to predict the maximum number of in-hospital lab-confirmed Covid-19 cases, in the 30-day period around the first peak of cases.
This question asks: How many patients with Covid-19 in El Paso County will require invasive ventilation on the day when the number of hospital admissions of peak?
This question resolves as the number of patients requiring invasive ventilation on the day that has the most in-hospital lab-confirmed Covid-19 cases.
That is, the product of your predictions to questions 1. and 2. should be essentially the same as your prediction for this question.
"Peak in hospital admissions" is defined as the resolution value of 1.
For the purpose of resolution, we shall consult numbers that are sourced from the Texas Dept Of State Health Dashboard. Alternatively, resolution is by data provided by any of the following: Trauma Service Area Hospital Data, TUHSC El Paso, the Texas Department of State Health Services, or the CDC. Other sources many also be considered if judged to be credible and accurate by an admin. In case no data may be found, this question may resolve as the product of the resolution values for questions 1. and 2.
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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