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Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?
Cross-posted on Metaculus.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), formerly known as 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease, is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus closely related to the SARS virus. The disease is the cause of the ongoing 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic.
This question asks: Within any single calendar month in 2020, will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths, worldwide, be reported?
This question resolves as the number reported by:
- The Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard, or, if that source is no longer available or no longer considered reliable,
- the WHO situation reports, or another source judged credible by Metaculus administrators.
- Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?
- Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?
- Will at least 400,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?
- Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.