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Will at least 400,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), formerly known as 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease, is an infectious disease caused by [SARS-CoV-2], a virus closely related to the SARS virus. The disease is the cause of the ongoing ]2019–20 coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronav…).

As of 17 April 2020, over 2.1 million cases and over 147,000 deaths have been reported, mostly in the United States.

This question asks: Within any single calendar month in 2020, will at least 400,000 COVID-19 deaths, worldwide, be reported?

This question resolves as the number reported by:

  • The Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard, or, if that source is no longer available or no longer considered reliable,
  • the WHO situation reports, or another source judged credible by Metaculus administrators.

Related questions:

Categories: Global Epidemiology Cases

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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

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