Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021 if Australia experiences a resurgence in COVID-19 in their 2020 flu season?
There are concerns that there may be another wave of COVID-19 in the northern hemisphere this fall. In the US, top health officials have warned of such a possibility. If this were to occur, the timing of the spread of COVID-19 would resemble that of seasonal influenza. Flu season in the northern hemisphere (including the US) is considered to be October through May and in the southern hemisphere (including Australia) is June through September.
This question asks: How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021 if Australia experiences a resurgence in COVID-19 in their 2020 flu season?
As specified in the question asking whether Australia will experience a resurgence of COVID-19 during their 2020 flu season, we define a resurgence as a period of at least 7 consecutive days where more than 500 new cases are reported per day between 2020-05-01 and 2020-09-30. That question will be used to determine if the criteria of Australia having a resurgence of this question has been met. If that question resolves as no, this question resolves as ambiguous. If that question resolves as yes, this question resolves to the value of how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
Embed this question
You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.