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    LRT 2.3.5 Deaths below 5,000

    Created by Tamay on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}
    Published by Tamay on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}
    Cross-posted on Metaculus.

    Question

    Using data from the COVID tracker daily reports from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1710, 6389, 12027, 13708, and 13788 new deaths reported each week in the US.

    Will total newly reported deaths first fall below 5,000 in any week after the week ending on June 20th?

    Weekly new deaths will be calculated using new reported deaths Sunday through Saturday of each week. A positive resolution will result if the number of deaths for the week ending on June 20th, or any subsequent week is the first week to be below 5,000 as reported by the COVID tracker spreadsheet.

    ETA (28/04): if the disease becomes endemic and mortality never drops below 5000/week, this question will resolve ambiguously.

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