Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?
Cross-posted on Metaculus.
Over the last week, stay-at-home restrictions in Georgia have been lifted and some businesses have reopened. Since April 11, Georgia has reported a rolling 7-day average of just under 700 new confirmed cases per day (see figure).
With the knowledge that restrictions may be tightened again or further loosened over the next few weeks:
What will the average number of new daily confirmed Covid-19 cases be, over the period from (and including) May 10th, till (and including) May 16th, in the state of Georgia?
The 10th, 50th and 90th percentile will be reported with the expert forecasts.
This question resolves as the average number of new daily cases from May 10th to May 16th (inclusive) as per the COVIDtracker Georgia historical data, reported on May 17th 4pm ET using the "Positive" column for each day. i.e.,
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.