Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?
Cross-posted on Metaculus.
Donald Trump signed a proclamation on 11 March which stated
The entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States is hereby suspended [as of] 11:59 p.m. eastern daylight time on March 13, 2020.
The proclamation has no end date, and
shall remain in effect until terminated by the President
This question will resolve to the first time when any given Schengen citizen, provided they have a valid ESTA or visitor visa, can cross the American border again, flying directly from a Schengen country.
- a partial termination, where visitors from only some Schengen countries are allowed to cross the border, will not trigger resolution
- a scenario where Schengen visitors are allowed to cross the border with a mandatory 14-day quarantine within the US will trigger resolution
If this does not resolve before Dec 31, 2020, it resolves as >Dec 31, 2020.
Edit on 14 May 2020 to add the following:
Resolution will be retroactive to 1 day before either:
- an official government announcement is made about when the ban will be terminated or
- a credible news publication reports a specific date on which the ban will be terminated, which turns out to be correct.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
Embed this question
You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.