crowdsourcing intelligent understanding calculating probable estimations forecasting quantitative understanding crowdsourcing probable forecasts computing probable predictions mapping the future exploring definitive estimations predicting calibrated forecasts assembling predictive wisdom composing contingent contingencies composing accurate understanding forecasting predictive understanding calculating calibrated wisdom mapping definitive predictions


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will the first antiviral therapy demonstrate a reduction in mortality rate in COVID-19 patients by 50% in a n>500 RCT?

Although most infections of SARS-CoV-2 are self-limited, about 15% of infected adults develop severe pneumonia that requires treatment with supplemental oxygen and an additional 5% progress to critical illness with hypoxaemic respiratory failure, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and multiorgan failure that necessitates ventilatory support, often for several weeks (Wang et al., 2020).

When will the first antiviral therapy demonstrate a reduction in mortality rate in COVID-19 patients by 50% in a n>500 RCT?

This question resolves as the date when it is announced that an antiviral therapy (including a cocktail of multiple antiviral drugs) has shown to reduce the mortality rate for COVID-19 by at least 50% in an n>500 RCT.

Announcement is by a preprint, peer-reviewed publication, or statement by a credible organisation familiar with the matter.

The results would have to be statistically significant for the entire treatment group when compared to the control group in order to resolve positively. If the results are statistically significant only for a subset of participants but not overall then this will resolve negatively.

This question resolves as ">2024-05-30" if it does not resolve prior to 2024-05-30.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.