Metaculus Help: Spread the word
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Californians contact tracing by mid-Aug:
On 10 April 2020, Google and Apple, the companies that control the Android and iOS mobile platforms, announced an initiative for privacy-preserving contact tracing based on a combination of Bluetooth Low Energy technology and privacy-preserving cryptography (W).
Google and Apple are both headquartered in the State of California.
How many in the state of California will have opted in to the most highly-subscribed privacy-preserving contact tracing app, as of mid-August, 2020?
This question resolves as the highest total number of Californians reported to have opted in using the most highly-subscribed privacy-preserving contact tracing app from August 10th and August 25th (inclusive).
For the app to constitute a contact tracing app, it must be a Mobile app, and at least three credible U.S. news reports must report must refer to the application as a "contact-tracing app", "contact-tracing project", "contact-tracing system," or similar. It must also be opt-in, as judged by Metaculus.
The question resolves as 0 if no reports indicate that any app is operating as of mid-august, 2020.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.