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Will the next peak in COVID-19 hospitalizations in California be more severe than the first?

As of 2020-04-28, there were 5011 suspected and positive Covid-19 patients in state of California, according to the COVID-19 Public Dashboard (historical data is also available here).

The maximum number of hospitalisations so far occurred on 2020-04-07. On that day, there were 2714 positive Covid-19 hospitalised patients and 3078 hospitalised suspected positive patients in California. This amounts to a total of 5792 hospitalisations (suspected and positive).

Will the number of total COVID-19 hospitalisations (suspected and positive) exceed 5792 in 2020?

This question resolves positively if the COVID-19 Public Dashboard reports more than 5792 COVID-19 hospitalizations (suspected and positive) occur in 2020. If this specific dashboard is discontinued, Metaculus moderators or admin may find an alternative service.


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Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

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