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What will be the list price for a 10-day treatment course of remdesivir?
Remdesivir is an experimental medication by Gilead Sciences that is currently being investigated as a possible antiviral treatment for COVID-19. Recently, a news release by the USA's NIH on the results of a randomized controlled trial found multiple clinical benefits of remdesivir use, including a faster time to recovery. Based on these results, the FDA has recently issued an emergency use authorization for the drug. As of 7 May 2020, Gilead Sciences is in the process of donating doses for at least 140,000 patients and has not yet set a price for remdesivir.
There is considerable discussion on how remdesivir will be priced. An analysis by The Institute for Clinical and Economic Review estimates that "cost recovery pricing for 10-day course...at $10" and "cost-effectiveness pricing...at a ceiling of $4,500." Consumer advocacy group Public Citizen has stated that remdesivir should be priced at $1 per day of treatment ($10 for a 10-day course) because “that is more than the cost of manufacturing at scale with a reasonable profit to Gilead.” In a note, one prominent Wall Street biotech analyst has set $1,000 as a "reasonable" placeholder price for a 10-day course.
This question asks: What will be the list price for a 10-day treatment course of remdesivir?
This will resolve as the first price, in U.S. dollars, that is listed for a 10-day treatment course of remdesivir. If the listed price is in a currency other than U.S. dollars, then exchange rates at the time of resolution will be used to resolve this question in U.S. dollars. Also, Metaculus will only consider the list price itself — this question will not take into account any rebates or discounts that may be offered by Gilead Sciences. The newsroom of Gilead is the preferred source for resolution but other credible news outlets (WSJ, NYT, STAT, CNBC, etc) may also be consulted if Gilead does not make its list price public.
Edit on 14 May 2020 to add the following:
- Resolution will be to the list price of remdesivir manufactured and sold by Gilead Sciences. Any generic remdesivir will not be considered for resolution.
- The Medicare drug fee schedule will be considered as a preferred source of resolution.
- In case the drug does not enter the market as a 10 day course of treatment, Metaculus will amortize the price over 10 days. For example, if the drug comes to market as a 14 day course of treatment, then we will resolve this question as 10/14ths of that price without having to resolve ambiguously on that count.
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