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How will COVID19 impact political ideology for DEMOCRATS in 6 months (Oct 2020)?

The Behavioral Forecasting Collaborative organized by researchers at the University of Waterloo have been studying political ideology in the US. Political ideology will be derived via aggregated weighted data from the Congressional Generic Ballot polls, which range from 0 to 100. Their research methods are as follows:

For past data, we approximated monthly ideological preferences via aggregated weighted data from the Congressional Generic Ballot polls conducted between January 2017 and March 2020, which ask representative samples of Americans to indicate which party they would support in an election. We used FiveThirtyEight weights. Based on this data, we then estimated monthly averages for support of Democrat and Republican parties across pollsters (e.g., Marist College, NBC/Wall Street Journal, CNN, YouGov/Economist).

Recently, they have expanded their research to include a new interest in how COVID-19 affects political ideology. This question asks:

What will the political ideology preferences score for Democrats be for October 2020?

We will collect predictions until May 22nd as part of a tournament, and this question will resolve mid-November, according to the dataset available on their website.


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