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How will COVID-19 impact POLITICAL POLARIZATION in 6 months (Oct 2020)?

The Behavioral Forecasting Collaborative organized by researchers at the University of Waterloo have been studying political polarization in the US. Political polarization is defined as differences in presidential approval ratings by party identification from Gallup polls, which range from 0 to 100. Their research methods are as follows:

We obtained a difference score in % of Republican versus Democrat approval ratings and estimated monthly averages for the time period of interest. The absolute value of the difference will ensure the estimate will not be affected by possible change in leadership after 2020 Presidential election.

Recently, they have expanded their research to include a new interest in how COVID-19 affects political polarization. This question asks:

What will the difference score in % of Republican versus Democrat approval ratings be for October 2020?

We will collect predictions until May 22nd as part of a tournament, and this question will resolve mid-November, according to the dataset available on their website.

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