exploring probable futures calculating intelligent wisdom crowdsourcing intelligent wisdom composing contingent contingencies formulating contingent contingencies mapping the future calculating probable wisdom calculating precise wisdom formulating intelligent futures calculating accurate forecasts mapping intelligent estimations assembling accurate estimations mapping predictive futures predicting accurate predictions


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

How will COVID-19 impact IMPLICIT Asian-American bias in 6 months (Oct 2020)?

The Behavioral Forecasting Collaborative organized by researchers at the University of Waterloo have been studying attitudes towards Asian-Americans. To study IMPLICIT Asian-American bias (i.e. stereotypes that are not directly expressed, rather they are implied), they obtained implicit stereotypes data from Project Implicit. Their research methods are as follows:

For implicit Asian-American bias, we used the implicit association test (IAT) which ranges from 0 to 1. In this test, positive IAT D scores indicate a relative preference for the White over Asian-American group. To correct sample non-representativeness, we weighted the estimates based on race, age, and political orientation.

Recently, they have expanded their research to include a new interest in how COVID-19 affects Asian-American bias. This question asks:

What will the difference in Implicit Associate Task score be for White vs. Asian-Americans for October 2020?

We will collect predictions until May 22nd as part of a tournament, and this question will resolve mid-November, according to the dataset available on their website.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.