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How will COVID-19 impact EXPLICIT Asian-American bias in 6 months (Oct 2020)?

The Behavioral Forecasting Collaborative organized by researchers at the University of Waterloo have been studying attitudes towards Asian-Americans. To study EXPLICIT Asian-American bias (i.e. stereotypes that are directly expressed), they obtained explicit stereotypes data from Project Implicit. Their research methods are as follows:

To assess Asian-American bias, participants provided ratings on feeling thermometers (0 – extremely cold to 10 – extremely warm) towards Asian-Americans and European Americans. Bias score was calculated as the difference in responses to European-American vs. Asian-American groups on feeling thermometers, with higher score reflecting less positive attitude towards Asian-Americans compared to European-Americans. To correct sample non-representativeness, we weighted the estimates based on race, age, and political orientation.

Recently, they have expanded their research to include a new interest in how COVID-19 affects Asian-American bias. This question asks:

What will the Explicit Asian-American Bias scores in US citizens be, for October 2020?

We will collect predictions until May 22nd as part of a tournament, and this question will resolve mid-November, according to the dataset available on their website.

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