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How will COVID-19 impact EXPLICIT African-American bias in 6 months (Oct 2020)?

The Behavioral Forecasting Collaborative organized by researchers at the University of Waterloo have been studying attitudes towards African-Americans. To study EXPLICIT African-American bias (i.e. stereotypes that are directly expressed), they obtained explicit stereotypes data from Project Implicit. Their research methods are as follows:

To assess African-American bias, participants provided ratings on feeling thermometers (0 – extremely cold to 10 – extremely warm) towards African-Americans and European Americans.

Bias score was calculated as the difference in responses to European-American vs. African-American groups on feeling thermometers, with higher score reflecting less positive attitude towards African-Americans compared to European-Americans. To correct sample non-representativeness, we weighted the estimates based on race, age, and political orientation.

Recently, they have expanded their research to include a new interest in how COVID-19 affects African-American bias. This question asks:

What will the Explicit African-American Bias scores in US citizens be, for October 2020?

We will collect predictions until May 22nd as part of a tournament, and this question will resolve mid-November, according to the dataset available on their website.


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