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How will COVID-19 impact EXPLICIT gender-career bias in 6 months (Oct 2020)?

The Behavioral Forecasting Collaborative organized by researchers at the University of Waterloo have been studying gender-career bias. To study EXPLICIT gender-career bias (i.e. stereotypes that are directly expressed), they obtained explicit stereotypes data from Project Implicit. Their research methods are as follows:

Participants rated the extent to which they associated career with male or female (from Strongly Female to Strongly Male) and then used the same scale to rate the extent to which they associated family with male or female. Relative explicit bias was then calculated as the difference in responses to the family and career items. To correct sample non-representativeness, we weighted the estimates based on race, age, and political orientation.

Recently, they have expanded their research to include a new interest in how COVID-19 affects gender-career bias. This question asks:

What will the explicit gender-career bias score be for October, 2020?

We will collect predictions until May 22nd as part of a tournament, and this question will resolve mid-November, according to the dataset available on their website.


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