mapping calibrated contingencies mapping intelligent wisdom modeling critical understanding aggregating predictive wisdom delivering calibrated predictions mapping the future mapping intelligent forecasts composing quantitative wisdom forecasting definitive insights calculating critical understanding composing predictive predictions exploring precise insights computing probable understanding assembling precise insights

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

How will COVID-19 impact EXPLICIT gender-career bias in 6 months (Oct 2020)?

The Behavioral Forecasting Collaborative organized by researchers at the University of Waterloo have been studying gender-career bias. To study EXPLICIT gender-career bias (i.e. stereotypes that are directly expressed), they obtained explicit stereotypes data from Project Implicit. Their research methods are as follows:

Participants rated the extent to which they associated career with male or female (from Strongly Female to Strongly Male) and then used the same scale to rate the extent to which they associated family with male or female. Relative explicit bias was then calculated as the difference in responses to the family and career items. To correct sample non-representativeness, we weighted the estimates based on race, age, and political orientation.

Recently, they have expanded their research to include a new interest in how COVID-19 affects gender-career bias. This question asks:

What will the explicit gender-career bias score be for October, 2020?

We will collect predictions until May 22nd as part of a tournament, and this question will resolve mid-November, according to the dataset available on their website.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.