Metaculus

Predicting Pandemics
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    Introducing the Behavioral Science Forecasting Collaborative with the University of Waterloo

    Created by JBoyles on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}} • Edited on {{qctrl.question.edited_time | dateStr}}
    Partnered with The Forecasting Collaborative.

    What are the societal and psychological changes that would follow the COVID-19 pandemic? How accurate are forecasts? The Forecasting Collaborative aims to address these questions via a crowdsourced forecasting tournament.

    The Behavioral Forecasting Collaborative organized by researchers at the University of Waterloo are seeking predictions for the social consequences of COVID-19, based on expertise or models. Their variables of interest are: political polarization, political ideology, race and gender bias, life satisfaction, and affect on social media. The goal of this project is to investigate the accuracy of forecasts about critical social issues in the US over the next 12 months.

    Participants will gain insights into your estimate accuracy and have the opportunity to get authorship on the resulting publication (aiming for a top-tier interdisciplinary journal). Deadline is May 22 and details are available here: https://predictions.uwaterloo.ca/

    In early November, the Forecasting Collaborative will analyze the data and resolve the question. At that time, you will be invited to make predictions for May 2021.