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LRT 4.4: What will be the seven day average of new cases per day in the state of Washington for the week of June 1, 2020 through June 7, 2020 if the state has an accelerated restart?
Stay-home-orders were extended in Washington state until at least May 31st, and the state entered phase one of four phases of their “Safe Start” reopening on May 4. The first phase allows some recreation and construction to reopen and the state will remain in each phase for a minimum of three weeks. Five counties in Washington, with less than 75,000 residents and no new reported cases in the past three weeks, were allowed to begin phase 2. To aid your forecast, the Washington DOH provides a detailed dashboard here.
Given the information about current orders in Washington state, and accounting for any updates over the coming weeks:
If an accelerated restart in Washington allowed all counties to enter Phase 2 on May 16, 2020 (and was not rescinded before June 1, 2020), what will be the seven day average of new cases per day for the week of June 1, 2020 through June 7, 2020? (inclusive of both start and end date)?
This question will resolve to the average number of cases per day reported by the Washington COVIDTracker page for the week of June 1 through June 7, as reported on June 08 at 17:00 ET iff the state allows all counties to enter Phase 2 on May 16, 2020 and does not rescind this allowance before June 1, 2020. Otherwise this question will resolve as ambiguous.
Note: The 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile from the community prediction will be used for the COVID-19 Expert Survey results.
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