generating quantitative insights forecasting intelligent estimations aggregating contingent predictions delivering intelligent understanding aggregating calibrated insights mapping the future predicting definitive forecasts forecasting contingent forecasts aggregating definitive futures exploring predictive wisdom crowdsourcing calibrated futures delivering probable futures crowdsourcing predictive contingencies formulating quantitative wisdom


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

LRT 4.4: What will be the seven day average of new cases per day in the state of Washington for the week of June 1, 2020 through June 7, 2020 if the state has an accelerated restart?

Stay-home-orders were extended in Washington state until at least May 31st, and the state entered phase one of four phases of their “Safe Start” reopening on May 4. The first phase allows some recreation and construction to reopen and the state will remain in each phase for a minimum of three weeks. Five counties in Washington, with less than 75,000 residents and no new reported cases in the past three weeks, were allowed to begin phase 2. To aid your forecast, the Washington DOH provides a detailed dashboard here.

Given the information about current orders in Washington state, and accounting for any updates over the coming weeks:

If an accelerated restart in Washington allowed all counties to enter Phase 2 on May 16, 2020 (and was not rescinded before June 1, 2020), what will be the seven day average of new cases per day for the week of June 1, 2020 through June 7, 2020? (inclusive of both start and end date)?

This question will resolve to the average number of cases per day reported by the Washington COVIDTracker page for the week of June 1 through June 7, as reported on June 08 at 17:00 ET iff the state allows all counties to enter Phase 2 on May 16, 2020 and does not rescind this allowance before June 1, 2020. Otherwise this question will resolve as ambiguous.

Note: The 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile from the community prediction will be used for the COVID-19 Expert Survey results.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.