Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
By August 1, how many tests for COVID-19 will have been administered in the US?
As of late March, it is fairly clear that only a small fraction of US COVID-19 cases are being identified through testing. (Comparing for example the fatality, confirmed case, and CFR numbers shows this.)
Tests are ramping up (albeit slowly) in the US but current strategy seems to only aim to test symptomatic cases or high-risk groups.
It is possible, though, that the only bridge measure to a vaccine that allows less than tens of percent of the US to be infected with COVID-19 is blanket testing and followup; this would lead to a huge number, potentially hundreds of millions or even billions with repeated testing.
Resolution will be based on credible and corroborated estimate of the total number of tests administered by August 1, +/- one week. Multiple credible estimates as judged by moderators can be averaged.
Concerns tests administered, not people tested. (And multiple tests used at one time to increase accuracy count as more than one.)
Any form of test that involves a physical specimen and some chemical process counts (but not say an app that takes your temperature and listens to you cough.) This thus includes both PCR tests and antibody tests.
The question resolves on 25 August, 2020, +/- two days.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
Embed this question
You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.