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When will a government first require a positive antibody test result for some workers to return to work?

One proposal for safely ending large-scale lockdowns is to begin issuing "immunity certificates" or "immunity passports". Essentially, an individual would be tested for COVID-19 antibodies, and if they have antibodies, they would be issued a document or credential certifying that they are able to re-enter society without any risk of further spreading the virus. (This only really works if COVID-19 reinfection is either not possible or extremely rare. Fortunately, early reports of reinfections appear to have been erroneous).

Unfortunately, currently available antibody tests don't perform very well. Even so, at some point some government may balance test quality against lockdown costs and favor the test.

When will a government first require a positive antibody test result for some workers to return to work?

The government in question can be any government with legal jurisdiction over at least 500,000 inhabitants (e.g. the State of Wyoming, the city of Washington D.C.), anywhere in the world. It must require an antibody test--a record of infection will not suffice to resolve this question. Question should be resolved on the authority of a reputable news source (where "reputable" is left to the discretion of the Metaculus admins) or press release by the government instituting the policy. At the time the policy is implemented, question retroactively closes at the time the policy was first announced (and resolved as the time at which the policy moved into effect). If the testing policy is delayed or canceled before it is implemented, this question should remain open. If no government of any sufficiently-large population implements an antibody-testing policy before 2025, question resolves as >2024-12-31.


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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

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