Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
How many deaths due to pediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome will be reported in the US, UK, EU member states and Japan, by the end of 2020?
Pediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome is a potentially novel disease in children that is thought to be associated with COVID-19. According to The Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, the clinical presentation as currently understood is as follows:
- Persistent fever, inflammation (neutrophilia, elevated CRP and lymphopaenia) and evidence of single or multi-organ dysfunction (shock, cardiac, respiratory, renal, gastrointestinal or neurological disorder)
- Exclusion of any other microbial cause
- SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing may be positive or negative
This disease is rare, poorly understood, and a link to SARS-CoV-2 infection has not yet been conclusively established. Previous studies have suggested that some common cold human coronaviruses are not linked to childhood diseases similar to pediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome while others do seem to be linked.
This questions asks: How many deaths due to pediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome will be reported in the US, UK, EU member states and Japan, by the end of 2020?
This question resolves as the number of reported deaths in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan in 2020 according to medical publications or credible media reports.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.