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Will there be a ‘second wave’ of COVID-19 deaths in the US before 2021 that is at least as severe as the first?

Lockdown orders due to the COVID-19 pandemic have begun to lift across the US. Experts have expressed concern that easing lockdowns could result in another increase of COVID-19 cases. Many people have noted that the second wave of the 1918 pandemic was more deadly than the first. Could the COVID-19 pandemic have a similar result? According to the Financial Times, the seven day rolling average of daily confirmed deaths in the US first peaked on 2020-04-22 at 6.40 deaths per million.

Will there be a ‘second wave’ of COVID-19 deaths in the US before 2021 that is at least as severe as the first?

For the purpose of this question, the ‘first wave’ will be assumed to be complete. This question will resolve positively if the seven day simple moving average of daily confirmed deaths in the US reaches or exceeds 6.40 deaths per million any day after 2020-07-22 but before 2021-01-01. Resolution will be determined using data reported by the Covid Tracking Project US Historical Data under the "deaths" column. The population of the US will be assumed to be 328.2 Million.


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